Time for a bit of a personal COVID epistemic update. To reiterate: I’m no expert, and while there’s no shortage of those, plenty of folks keep asking what I think. First, let me talk about the things it looks like I may have been wrong about. I’ve been pretty loudly claiming that the low-threshold herd immunity people are on to something. I think they still are, but I said early on that I’d seriously reevaluate their claims once we saw significant second-wave infections in places that were hard-hit initially. And now we have. First up was Spain: That alone is…